By Ed Kilgore, NYMag.com, June 23rd, 2016:
Thanks to the extreme unhappiness of Republican elites and many GOP voters with Donald Trump, most of the third-party speculation this year has been around the possibility of a “movement conservative” independent candidate. As that scenario has slowly faded, the Libertarians went the extra mile to make their ticket attractive to disgruntled GOPers, with two former governors running. Accordingly, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is beginning to register in the high single-digits and low-teens in trial heats against Trump and Hillary Clinton, with prospects for doing better if the GOP convention is the fiasco some observers expect. Indeed, Johnson is within shouting distance of the 15 percent poll-showing that would qualify him for general-election presidential debates, which all third-party candidates view as a breakout opportunity.
But there’s a fourth candidate already out there who, like Johnson, enjoys the support of a preexisting party with a clear identity and access to the ballot in many states: Jill Stein, making her second consecutive run for president, as the presumptive Green nominee for 2016 (she will, barring a strange upset, be formally nominated at the Green convention in early August).